A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
